If in the present day’s third-quarter GDP report is certainly robust, then July can take a lot of the credit score.
A shopper spending surge helped to drive progress in the beginning of the final quarter, however it’s prone to have pale by the tip.
As Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Providers places it:
The story for the UK financial system in Q3 was a powerful begin which had fizzled out virtually fully by the tip of the quarter, certainly month-to-month GDP and the Index of Providers for September are seen at simply 0.1% m/m after flat readings in August.
Q3 Enterprise Funding is projected to rebound modestly to 0.2% q/q, which might be an enchancment on Q2’s -0.7% q/q, however is clearly closely encumbered by Brexit associated uncertainties
Introduction: UK summer season progress figures anticipated to sizzle
Britain’s scorching summer season is, alas, behind us. The barbecues have been put away, and World Cup wall charts have been taken down, because the nation braces for Storm Deirdre to offer us an autumnal blast.
However we’ll at all times have the recollections. And this morning, we uncover simply how nicely the financial system carried out in July-September – and whether or not Brexit uncertainty and world commerce conflicts took the shine off the scorching summer season.
New UK GDP knowledge is anticipated to point out Britain’s financial system expanded at its quickest fee in virtually two years over the summer season, with progress of round 0.6%.
That will be a lot better than the measly 0.1% progress recorded in Q1, or the 0.4% in Q2.
To be sincere, it could be a shock if in the present day’s GDP studying wasn’t good. Below the UK’s new month-to-month GDP reporting system, we already know that July was robust (with progress of 0.6% in that month alone).
August appears to have been flat, however progress most likely picked up a bit of in September.
Royal Financial institution of Canada predict that family spending and constructing exercise boosted progress over the summer season:
The nice summer season climate boosted shopper spending and development exercise.
This primary launch of quarterly GDP now comes with an expenditure breakdown which we anticipate to point out family consumption and funding being the key contributors to 3rd quarter progress.
Amid a blizzard of information at 9.30am, we’ll additionally find out how nicely Britain’s factories and repair sector corporations and exporters fared in September.
However a powerful efficiency received’t repair all Britain’s financial challenges. The Metropolis fears that progress is slowing within the present quarter, as corporations slash funding plans forward of Brexit.
Yesterday the European Fee predicted Britain would tumble to the underside of the European progress league subsequent 12 months, even after a delicate departure from the EU.
- 9.30am GMT: UK GDP for the third quarter of 2018
- 9.30am GMT: UK commerce stability for September
- 9.30am GMT: UK industrial manufacturing for September
- 9.30am GMT: UK index of companies for September
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