We already know that progress in 2018 was uneven — unhealthy wintery climate received the 12 months off to a nasty begin, earlier than a blissful summer time (and a few sparking soccer outcomes) cheered spirits.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:
After the energy seen in the midst of final 12 months the UK financial system softened considerably heading into the ultimate quarter. Loads of the energy seen in Q2 and Q3 was a consequence of a weak Q1 on account of the so referred to as “Beast from the East” which paralysed many of the nation into March.
The resultant rebound was as a lot to do with that as a Royal Wedding ceremony, a sizzling summer time, and an honest summer time of sport culminating in an honest Soccer World Cup run for England.
It is UK GDP Day
Gross Home Product isn’t an ideal measure. And that’s no surprise — how can a single quantity sum up all the things, good and unhealthy, that occurs in an financial system?
GDP can’t distinguish between exercise that’s actively dangerous, and that which makes our lives higher. It struggles to deal with the web, isn’t nice at measuring enhancements in providers, and might’t deal with unpaid work in any respect.
However regardless of these flaws, GDP is the ‘go-to’ measure for policymakers who wish to understand how their financial system is faring. And immediately, Britain’s financial system is within the highlight.
GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2018, due at 9.30am, are anticipated to indicate a pointy slowdown. Economists predict that the financial system solely grew by round 0.3% in October-December, simply half as quick because the 0.6% recorded in the course of the heatwave of July-September.
Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, predicts that the financial system might not have grown in December in any respect.
“Placing the items collectively, we’re forecasting GDP to have remained unchanged in December, though it’s attainable that we see a really small achieve,” he mentioned. “This leads to a 0.3% rise [for the fourth quarter].
“We’ll look intently at enterprise funding – the world which we think about to be essentially the most affected by Brexit worries – and particularly to see if it recorded its fourth consecutive quarterly decline within the fourth quarter.”
Right here’s Angela Monaghan’s preview:
Such muted progress would reinforce issues that the UK, and the broader international financial system, is weakening. Brexit, the US-China commerce wars, and political tensions within the eurozone will all be blamed.
At this time’s report will present how manufacturing, providers and development all fared within the final quarter. The Workplace for Nationwide Statistics may even report new commerce figures, giving an honest image of the well being of the financial system as we put together for Brexit.
- 9.30am GMT: UK GDP report for This autumn 2018 launched
- 9.30am GMT: UK commerce stability for December
Up to date